The Question Of AIDS
The Question Of AIDS
The question, if AIDS has not spread in geometrically, then either the spread is slowing down (among homosexuals), or we are being successful in treating AIDS, or the *active* cases of AIDS is changing.
As we know, there is currently no cure for AIDS, as so far, the drug treatments have done very little to prolong the life of AIDS sufferers. Although some people have lived slightly longer than the average time of 1-3 years after testing positive for AIDS anti-bodies, as the sheer numbers of AIDS infected increase, we can expect to see some temporary ‘successes’ from time to time. However, AIDS is fatal – sooner or later.
Since it takes one AIDS infected person to infect another person, and we can assume that only one person is infected by one other person at a time, we would have to know how many person(s) an AIDS carrier is capable of infecting (over a specific period of time), or at least an average, and how *long* the AIDS carrier is capable of infecting others. Then we would need to know how much “innoculant” is needed to infect a person (there are no volunteers, I suspect), and the resistance to infection. The CDC in Atlanta doesn’t keep this kind of data on-hand, as far as I know, so trying to speculate on why AIDS is not spreading geometrically, for the most part is guess work.
We do have some hard data than can shed some light on the situation, but it leaves a rather complex situation.
Heres some interesting information, this is based on data collected from Jan.-Dec. each year, so it will NOT be corresponding with the previous figures which run from Nov.-Nov. each year. This year is not complete, so the totals will seem small, and the CDC report I will be using is dated November 14, 1988 – the same one (and it’s previous year) that I have used throughout the discussion.
Year NEW cases – Known deaths = Active Carriers 1981 290 267 23 1982 1,052 942 110 1983 2,893 2,615 278 1984 5,816 4,857 959 1985 10,707 8,589 2,118 1986 17,006 11,566 5,440 1987 23,666 11,183 12,483 1988 16,800 3,981 12,819 (this year not complete) ——————————————- totals 78,312 44,071+ 34,230
It should be noted….the reporting of deaths is incomplete, these are KNOWN deaths, so there are probably many more left unreported. The active carriers is increasing, so is the death rates. If everyone lived longer than the apparent average of 1 or 2 years, we might see a faster increase, possibly a four fold increase per year. But, since the carriers die off as fast as they do, we probably won’t ever see a doubling or tripling every year. I would imagine the annual increases we see now do speak for themselves inlight of the “lag” in the increase of active AIDS carriers.
What is really the sad news is this:
Considering how many Active AIDS Carriers there are, look at how many people they have managed to infect, figuring an incubation period of at least one year. If for instance, we assume in 1984 there were somewhere in the neighborhood of 900-1200 active AIDS carriers, the results for 1985 is 10,000 NEW AIDS CASES! That is a 1:10 ratio, not good at all. Last year we have about 1:4.5 ratio, with this year probably coming in around 1:2 ratio.
Before anyone says, “Ah Hah! See I told you so!”….
Let’s remember that hemophiliacs are not spreading AIDS, it is not easily spread Heterosexually (due to the different environment, the obvious differences between a vagina and a rectum), and babies – but these are the recipients of the deadly virus. It is also these groups that are seeing increases. When we subtract these groups from the ‘active carrier’ list, (since they are not spreading AIDS) what appeared to be a slow down in the spread of AIDS among homosexuals, shows the growth the previous numbers confirm. That was an increase of 5000 over the previous year for homosexuals. Unfortunately, we can only make an educated guess which groups of individuals are dieing and at what rates. It could very well be that given the homosexual lifestyle, they DO pick up more diseases quicker and easier, thereby dying faster. This would definately effect the rate of active AIDS carriers, transmission rates, etc., but we don’t have any hard data on this from the CDC.
The percentage increases can mislead, but when we look at plain numbers, like NEW cases this year – 265 Hemophiliacs compared to 15,489 Homosexuals or 6,576 IV Drug users, well there isn’t too much to compare.
Bill Bennett
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